The closely matched market probabilities across a wide range of temperature outcomes for Amsterdam on September 18 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in regional models. Primary drivers include the evolving position of an Atlantic trough, variable warm-air advection from the south, and potential for a weak frontal passage that could cap daytime highs or allow clearer skies and greater insolation. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS shows spread in maximum temperatures tied to subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September baselines near 18–20°C providing context but limited skill at this lead time. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
9月18日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
19°C 54%
18°C 19%
20°C 18%
16°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
13°C或以下
2%
14°C
4%
15°C
4%
16°C
7%
17°C
7%
18°C
25%
19°C
54%
20°C
18%
21°C
5%
22°C
2%
23°C或以上
2%
19°C 54%
18°C 19%
20°C 18%
16°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
13°C或以下
$0 交易量
2%
14°C
$0 交易量
4%
15°C
$0 交易量
4%
16°C
$0 交易量
7%
17°C
$0 交易量
7%
18°C
$6 交易量
25%
19°C
$80 交易量
54%
20°C
$0 交易量
18%
21°C
$0 交易量
5%
22°C
$0 交易量
2%
23°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market probabilities across a wide range of temperature outcomes for Amsterdam on September 18 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in regional models. Primary drivers include the evolving position of an Atlantic trough, variable warm-air advection from the south, and potential for a weak frontal passage that could cap daytime highs or allow clearer skies and greater insolation. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS shows spread in maximum temperatures tied to subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September baselines near 18–20°C providing context but limited skill at this lead time. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$86結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The closely matched market probabilities across a wide range of temperature outcomes for Amsterdam on September 18 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in regional models. Primary drivers include the evolving position of an Atlantic trough, variable warm-air advection from the south, and potential for a weak frontal passage that could cap daytime highs or allow clearer skies and greater insolation. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS shows spread in maximum temperatures tied to subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September baselines near 18–20°C providing context but limited skill at this lead time. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eham
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$86結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThe closely matched market probabilities across a wide range of temperature outcomes for Amsterdam on September 18 reflect substantial short-range forecast uncertainty in regional models. Primary drivers include the evolving position of an Atlantic trough, variable warm-air advection from the south, and potential for a weak frontal passage that could cap daytime highs or allow clearer skies and greater insolation. Ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS shows spread in maximum temperatures tied to subtle differences in cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing, with historical September baselines near 18–20°C providing context but limited skill at this lead time. New model runs and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely tighten the distribution ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions