High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月18日武漢氣溫最高？
9月18日武漢氣溫最高？
24°C 25%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
26°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
20°C或以下
4%
21°C
19%
22°C
12%
23°C
22%
24°C
25%
25°C
25%
26°C
22%
27°C
7%
28°C
4%
29°C
2%
30°C或以上
2%
24°C 25%
25°C 25%
23°C 22%
26°C 22%
最新
最新
2026-09-18
20°C或以下
$0 交易量
4%
21°C
$0 交易量
19%
22°C
$0 交易量
12%
23°C
$0 交易量
22%
24°C
$0 交易量
25%
25°C
$0 交易量
25%
26°C
$0 交易量
22%
27°C
$0 交易量
7%
28°C
$0 交易量
4%
29°C
$0 交易量
2%
30°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.High uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zhhh
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-18市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 12:57 AM ETHigh uncertainty in pinpointing Wuhan's exact daily maximum temperature two days ahead stems from variability in short-range atmospheric conditions over central China. Late-September patterns feature weakening monsoon influence, allowing greater day-to-day swings driven by temperature advection, cloud cover from scattered convection, and boundary-layer mixing. Official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global models such as ECMWF and GFS typically show uncertainty ranges of 2–4°C at this lead time, with local urban heat island effects in Wuhan adding further variability. Recent surface observations and ensemble spreads support the broad market distribution across the 21–28°C outcomes, while extreme tails remain low-probability given climatological baselines near 27–29°C. Updated model runs and 48-hour forecasts will refine the range ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions