**Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF consensus project overnight lows near 16°C in Madrid on September 14 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting the 68.5% market-implied probability for 16°C or below.** High pressure promotes strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 34°C, consistent with the September climatological average low of 15.7°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread and no major revisions in the past 48 hours, with stable conditions and negligible precipitation risk reinforcing trader confidence in this outcome. Historical records indicate such temperatures are typical absent unusual synoptic shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於9月14日馬德裏最低氣溫？
9月14日馬德裏最低氣溫？
16°C或以下 75%
18°C 28%
19°C 24%
17°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
16°C或以下
75%
17°C
20%
18°C
28%
19°C
24%
20°C
14%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C
2%
24°C
2%
25°C
2%
26°C或以上
2%
16°C或以下 75%
18°C 28%
19°C 24%
17°C 20%
最新
最新
2026-09-14
16°C或以下
$0 交易量
75%
17°C
$0 交易量
20%
18°C
$0 交易量
28%
19°C
$0 交易量
24%
20°C
$0 交易量
14%
21°C
$0 交易量
2%
22°C
$0 交易量
2%
23°C
$0 交易量
2%
24°C
$0 交易量
2%
25°C
$0 交易量
2%
26°C或以上
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF consensus project overnight lows near 16°C in Madrid on September 14 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting the 68.5% market-implied probability for 16°C or below.**
High pressure promotes strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 34°C, consistent with the September climatological average low of 15.7°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread and no major revisions in the past 48 hours, with stable conditions and negligible precipitation risk reinforcing trader confidence in this outcome. Historical records indicate such temperatures are typical absent unusual synoptic shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF consensus project overnight lows near 16°C in Madrid on September 14 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting the 68.5% market-implied probability for 16°C or below.**
High pressure promotes strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 34°C, consistent with the September climatological average low of 15.7°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread and no major revisions in the past 48 hours, with stable conditions and negligible precipitation risk reinforcing trader confidence in this outcome. Historical records indicate such temperatures are typical absent unusual synoptic shifts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-09-14市場開放時間
Sep 12, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Forecast models from GFS and ECMWF consensus project overnight lows near 16°C in Madrid on September 14 under clear skies and light northeasterly winds, supporting the 68.5% market-implied probability for 16°C or below.** High pressure promotes strong radiative cooling after daytime highs near 34°C, consistent with the September climatological average low of 15.7°C. Recent model runs show minimal spread and no major revisions in the past 48 hours, with stable conditions and negligible precipitation risk reinforcing trader confidence in this outcome. Historical records indicate such temperatures are typical absent unusual synoptic shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions