The recent surge in 30-year Treasury yields to 5.61–5.65% as of October 1—levels not seen since 2004—reflects persistent upward pressure from resilient U.S. growth, elevated energy prices near $100 per barrel for Brent crude, and heavy Treasury and corporate bond supply tied to AI infrastructure spending. Softer-than-expected August PCE inflation at 3.4% year-over-year provided only brief relief after upward Q2 GDP revisions, while Fed officials signaled a cautious approach to further tightening following the September rate hike to the 3.75–4% target range. Market-implied odds for an October 27–28 FOMC move have fallen sharply. Key near-term catalysts include upcoming jobs data, September CPI, and the FOMC meeting, which could influence whether yields test or exceed recent peaks amid ongoing term-premium expansion.