The September CPI release on October 14 stands as the key near-term catalyst for the 2-year Treasury yield, which has traded near 4.7–4.8% following the Federal Reserve’s first rate increase since 2023 to the 3.75–4.00% target range. Sticky August inflation readings (headline CPI 3.4%, core PCE 3.4%) and resilient growth have kept traders pricing in at least one additional hike by year-end, while the weak September jobs report (+29,000 payrolls, 4.2% unemployment) has tempered October odds to roughly 25–35%. The October 28–29 FOMC meeting and subsequent data will further shape front-end pricing, with the 2-year remaining most sensitive to shifts in the expected policy path versus longer-term term premium influences.