Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran's enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, burying much of its highly enriched uranium stockpile and targeting weaponization sites. IAEA assessments and expert analyses, including from David Albright in July 2026, indicate the program remains degraded with no confirmed resumption of enrichment or weaponization activities. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations and a memorandum reaffirming non-acquisition of nuclear weapons reinforce barriers to rapid progress. U.S. intelligence notes the new supreme leader's greater interest in advanced capabilities, yet the current infrastructure damage and detection risks sustain trader consensus against a completed device before 2027. Late breakthroughs in covert rebuilding or negotiation collapse represent the primary scenarios that could alter this outlook.