Recent US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025 and early 2026 damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan while burying much of the highly enriched uranium stockpile, according to IAEA assessments and US intelligence. The June 2026 IAEA report confirmed continued loss of verification access and no major rebound in capabilities, with independent analyses indicating Iran would require roughly a year or more to reconstitute a viable path to a weapon. These setbacks, combined with ongoing sanctions and monitoring gaps, underpin trader consensus favoring no nuclear device before 2027. Limited remaining time in 2026 further reinforces this positioning. Potential shifts could stem from undetected reconstitution efforts, new diplomatic breakthroughs, or renewed military action altering the timeline.