Recent U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in June 2025 and February 2026 damaged enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, along with weaponization-related infrastructure, pushing back U.S. intelligence estimates of the time required for Iran to produce a nuclear device to roughly nine to twelve months. IAEA reports confirm that inspectors lack access to affected sites and cannot verify suspension of enrichment activities, while Tehran maintains its stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains under rubble with no active resumption reported as of March 2026. Ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations mediated through Oman, combined with sustained sanctions and military pressure, have reinforced trader expectations that these setbacks will prevent acquisition before the end of 2026, despite remaining uncertainty over recovery efforts.