Traders assign a 97.7% probability that Jeffrey Epstein will not be confirmed alive before 2027 because official records, including the 2019 autopsy by New York City's chief medical examiner, established his death by suicide while in federal custody, with no subsequent verified sightings, DNA matches, or institutional disclosures contradicting that finding. Recent social media claims, such as AI-generated images from early 2026 and a March 2026 video of a Florida lookalike, were promptly debunked by multiple fact-checkers without producing admissible evidence. The absence of credible developments in the seven years since his reported death, combined with ongoing document releases that have not altered the official determination, sustains the strong market consensus. A shift would require an authenticated, high-level confirmation such as forensic verification or an authoritative government statement within the narrow remaining window.