Ongoing US-brokered talks in Washington have produced a 45-day ceasefire extension announced on May 15, yet yielded no progress toward formal diplomatic relations or recognition. Israel continues to tie any broader accord to Hezbollah’s full disarmament and Lebanese state control over the southern border, while Lebanese officials stress constitutional barriers to normalization and prioritize immediate security arrangements. Persistent cross-border strikes, including recent Israeli operations in southern Lebanon, alongside Hezbollah’s reservations and domestic political divisions, have reinforced trader consensus that these hurdles will prevent official ties by the end of 2026. Further political and security-track meetings scheduled for late May and early June remain focused on de-escalation rather than comprehensive peace.