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icon for 以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？
世界·以色列x伊朗

以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？

icon for 以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？
世界·以色列x伊朗

以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？

1月 1, 2027

1月 1, 2027

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$239,015 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$239,015 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing talks following the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement have advanced a sequenced process linking phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah disarmament and expanded Lebanese Armed Forces control.** Negotiations continued in Rome during July and August, with further rounds scheduled for October, yet Hezbollah leaders have rejected the framework as invalid and maintain significant military capacity. Full diplomatic normalization—encompassing mutual recognition, embassies, and formal peace—remains blocked by these security requirements, Lebanese domestic constraints, and the short timeline to 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% because verifiable progress on disarmament and sovereignty restoration has not yet produced the comprehensive bilateral agreement needed before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$239,015
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Ongoing talks following the June 2026 U.S.-brokered trilateral framework agreement have advanced a sequenced process linking phased Israeli withdrawals from southern Lebanon to Hezbollah disarmament and expanded Lebanese Armed Forces control.** Negotiations continued in Rome during July and August, with further rounds scheduled for October, yet Hezbollah leaders have rejected the framework as invalid and maintain significant military capacity. Full diplomatic normalization—encompassing mutual recognition, embassies, and formal peace—remains blocked by these security requirements, Lebanese domestic constraints, and the short timeline to 2027. Traders price the "No" outcome at 91.5% because verifiable progress on disarmament and sovereignty restoration has not yet produced the comprehensive bilateral agreement needed before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$239,015
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "以色列和黎巴嫩會在2027年前實現關係正常化嗎？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" has generated $239K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" is "以色列和黎巴嫩會在2027年前實現關係正常化嗎？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.