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世界·以色列

以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？

icon for 以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？
世界·以色列

以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？

12月 31

12月 31

是

19% 機率
Polymarket

$157,715 交易量

是

19% 機率
Polymarket

$157,715 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon, including a 45-day ceasefire extension agreed May 15 following rounds on April 14 and May 14, center on Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from southern territory, and border security. Israeli officials seek a lasting peace treaty with normalized relations, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has stated explicitly that Beirut pursues peace without diplomatic normalization. Hezbollah has rejected any such accords, and repeated ceasefire violations continue amid these negotiations. These developments sustain trader consensus that full normalization remains unlikely before 2027 given the procedural hurdles, domestic Lebanese divisions, and absence of a comprehensive agreement framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$157,715
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing U.S.-brokered talks in Washington between Israel and Lebanon, including a 45-day ceasefire extension agreed May 15 following rounds on April 14 and May 14, center on Hezbollah disarmament, Israeli withdrawal from southern territory, and border security. Israeli officials seek a lasting peace treaty with normalized relations, while Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam has stated explicitly that Beirut pursues peace without diplomatic normalization. Hezbollah has rejected any such accords, and repeated ceasefire violations continue amid these negotiations. These developments sustain trader consensus that full normalization remains unlikely before 2027 given the procedural hurdles, domestic Lebanese divisions, and absence of a comprehensive agreement framework.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$157,715
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 1:06 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if both Israel and Lebanon officially announce the establishment of diplomatic relations by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israel and the Lebanon, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "以色列和黎巴嫩會在2027年前實現關係正常化嗎？" at 19%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 19¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" has generated $157.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" is "以色列和黎巴嫩會在2027年前實現關係正常化嗎？" at 19%, meaning the market assigns a 19% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以色列和黎巴嫩在2027年之前實現關係正常化？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.