**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.** Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月15日倫敦的最低溫度？
7月15日倫敦的最低溫度？
18°C 36%
17°C 30%
19°C 28%
16°C 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-07-15
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
3%
17°C
30%
18°C
36%
19°C
28%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 36%
17°C 30%
19°C 28%
16°C 3.3%
最新
最新
2026-07-15
13°C or below
$339 交易量
<1%
14°C
$521 交易量
<1%
15°C
$169 交易量
1%
16°C
$177 交易量
3%
17°C
$212 交易量
30%
18°C
$547 交易量
36%
19°C
$902 交易量
28%
20°C
$158 交易量
<1%
21°C
$173 交易量
<1%
22°C
$271 交易量
<1%
23°C or higher
$220 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.**
Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$3,688結束日期
2026-07-15市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.**
Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,688結束日期
2026-07-15市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 12:30 AM ET**Trader consensus centers on 18°C as the most likely minimum in London on July 15, with 45% implied probability, amid a persistent heatwave that has kept overnight lows elevated above typical July climatology of 14–16°C.** Model runs from the Met Office and European ensembles indicate continued southerly flow and high pressure through mid-month, limiting radiative cooling and supporting minima near 17–19°C, while urban heat island effects in central London further anchor temperatures. Recent model updates show minor spread driven by uncertainty in cloud cover and timing of any Atlantic front, which could allow slightly cooler air or enhanced mixing. Lower outcomes below 16°C carry reduced odds due to the lack of cold advection, whereas probabilities for 20°C+ reflect residual warmth if the plume holds longer. Updated short-range forecasts and Met Office briefings over the next 48 hours will provide the key signals for any shift ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions