Recent ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate highs near 30–32°C on July 14 amid active East Asian summer monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow delivering warm, humid air masses and scattered convective showers that can modulate peak temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical July averages hover around 32°C, but short-term model runs show sensitivity to timing of rainfall and boundary-layer moisture, spreading trader-implied odds across 28–31°C. Key variables include afternoon thunderstorm potential from the South China Sea monsoon branch and any shifts in subtropical ridge positioning, with updated NWP guidance expected to refine the distribution before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月14日深圳最高溫度?
29°C 38%
28°C 26%
30°C 19%
31°C 9%
$41,320 交易量
$41,320 交易量
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
26%
29°C
38%
30°C
19%
31°C
9%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C或以上
1%
29°C 38%
28°C 26%
30°C 19%
31°C 9%
$41,320 交易量
$41,320 交易量
24°C或以下
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
26%
29°C
38%
30°C
19%
31°C
9%
32°C
3%
33°C
1%
34°C或以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jul 12, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Recent ensemble forecasts for Shenzhen indicate highs near 30–32°C on July 14 amid active East Asian summer monsoon conditions, with southwesterly flow delivering warm, humid air masses and scattered convective showers that can modulate peak temperatures through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Historical July averages hover around 32°C, but short-term model runs show sensitivity to timing of rainfall and boundary-layer moisture, spreading trader-implied odds across 28–31°C. Key variables include afternoon thunderstorm potential from the South China Sea monsoon branch and any shifts in subtropical ridge positioning, with updated NWP guidance expected to refine the distribution before resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions