**Recent model consensus and observational trends position the daily minimum temperature in Paris on August 30 at 16–17 °C as the clear market favorite.** Southwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have kept overnight lows elevated, with recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS runs showing minima stabilizing near 16–17 °C (roughly 61–63 °F) under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate winds. This aligns with the past 24–48 hours of conditions, where similar mild advection and high humidity have prevented strong radiative cooling. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average around 13–14 °C, but the current pattern—driven by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and limited clear-sky windows—has shifted the distribution upward by 2–3 °C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because key variables (cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and wind gusts of 10–20 km/h) converge on the same narrow range; only an unexpected clearing or stronger northerly shift would push readings to 15 °C or below. With resolution imminent, traders have concentrated probability on the two most likely bins (17 °C at 51 %, 16 °C at 32.5 %), reflecting both the latest forecast guidance and the limited upside or downside risk in the final model updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日巴黎最低溫度？
8月30日巴黎最低溫度？
17°C 50%
16°C 32%
18°C 22%
19°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
12°C或以下
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
32%
17°C
50%
18°C
22%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C或以上
<1%
17°C 50%
16°C 32%
18°C 22%
19°C <1%
最新
最新
2026-08-30
12°C或以下
$235 交易量
<1%
13°C
$273 交易量
<1%
14°C
$40 交易量
<1%
15°C
$51 交易量
<1%
16°C
$738 交易量
32%
17°C
$1,134 交易量
50%
18°C
$266 交易量
22%
19°C
$135 交易量
1%
20°C
$40 交易量
<1%
21°C
$166 交易量
<1%
22°C或以上
$45 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational trends position the daily minimum temperature in Paris on August 30 at 16–17 °C as the clear market favorite.** Southwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have kept overnight lows elevated, with recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS runs showing minima stabilizing near 16–17 °C (roughly 61–63 °F) under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate winds. This aligns with the past 24–48 hours of conditions, where similar mild advection and high humidity have prevented strong radiative cooling.
Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average around 13–14 °C, but the current pattern—driven by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and limited clear-sky windows—has shifted the distribution upward by 2–3 °C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because key variables (cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and wind gusts of 10–20 km/h) converge on the same narrow range; only an unexpected clearing or stronger northerly shift would push readings to 15 °C or below. With resolution imminent, traders have concentrated probability on the two most likely bins (17 °C at 51 %, 16 °C at 32.5 %), reflecting both the latest forecast guidance and the limited upside or downside risk in the final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
交易量
$3,123結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus and observational trends position the daily minimum temperature in Paris on August 30 at 16–17 °C as the clear market favorite.** Southwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have kept overnight lows elevated, with recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS runs showing minima stabilizing near 16–17 °C (roughly 61–63 °F) under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate winds. This aligns with the past 24–48 hours of conditions, where similar mild advection and high humidity have prevented strong radiative cooling.
Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average around 13–14 °C, but the current pattern—driven by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and limited clear-sky windows—has shifted the distribution upward by 2–3 °C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because key variables (cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and wind gusts of 10–20 km/h) converge on the same narrow range; only an unexpected clearing or stronger northerly shift would push readings to 15 °C or below. With resolution imminent, traders have concentrated probability on the two most likely bins (17 °C at 51 %, 16 °C at 32.5 %), reflecting both the latest forecast guidance and the limited upside or downside risk in the final model updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,123結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:29 AM ET**Recent model consensus and observational trends position the daily minimum temperature in Paris on August 30 at 16–17 °C as the clear market favorite.** Southwesterly flow and persistent cloud cover have kept overnight lows elevated, with recent forecasts from ECMWF and GFS runs showing minima stabilizing near 16–17 °C (roughly 61–63 °F) under mostly cloudy skies and light-to-moderate winds. This aligns with the past 24–48 hours of conditions, where similar mild advection and high humidity have prevented strong radiative cooling. Climatologically, late-August Paris minima average around 13–14 °C, but the current pattern—driven by warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Atlantic and limited clear-sky windows—has shifted the distribution upward by 2–3 °C. Ensemble spreads remain narrow because key variables (cloud thickness, boundary-layer mixing, and wind gusts of 10–20 km/h) converge on the same narrow range; only an unexpected clearing or stronger northerly shift would push readings to 15 °C or below. With resolution imminent, traders have concentrated probability on the two most likely bins (17 °C at 51 %, 16 °C at 32.5 %), reflecting both the latest forecast guidance and the limited upside or downside risk in the final model updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions