**Forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 24°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 30, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability.** Recent runs show a cloudy regime with southwesterly flow around 15–20 km/h, limiting daytime heating near the long-term August 30 average high of 24°C. Traders have concentrated probability on 23–25°C (collectively over 98%), reflecting the narrow expected range amid stable high pressure and minimal precipitation risk. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and cloud cover explains the smaller shares for 25°C and 23°C, while extremes below 22°C or above 26°C remain low-probability outliers given current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月30日巴黎最高溫度？
8月30日巴黎最高溫度？
24°C 51%
23°C 33%
25°C 16%
26°C 3%
最新
$20,188 交易量
最新
$20,188 交易量
2026-08-30
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
33%
24°C
51%
25°C
16%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 51%
23°C 33%
25°C 16%
26°C 3%
最新
$20,188 交易量
最新
$20,188 交易量
2026-08-30
17°C or below
$1,194 交易量
<1%
18°C
$1,188 交易量
<1%
19°C
$1,103 交易量
<1%
20°C
$744 交易量
<1%
21°C
$363 交易量
<1%
22°C
$1,041 交易量
2%
23°C
$3,341 交易量
33%
24°C
$2,520 交易量
51%
25°C
$3,603 交易量
16%
26°C
$3,952 交易量
3%
27°C or higher
$1,139 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 24°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 30, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability.** Recent runs show a cloudy regime with southwesterly flow around 15–20 km/h, limiting daytime heating near the long-term August 30 average high of 24°C. Traders have concentrated probability on 23–25°C (collectively over 98%), reflecting the narrow expected range amid stable high pressure and minimal precipitation risk. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and cloud cover explains the smaller shares for 25°C and 23°C, while extremes below 22°C or above 26°C remain low-probability outliers given current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
交易量
$20,188結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 24°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 30, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability.** Recent runs show a cloudy regime with southwesterly flow around 15–20 km/h, limiting daytime heating near the long-term August 30 average high of 24°C. Traders have concentrated probability on 23–25°C (collectively over 98%), reflecting the narrow expected range amid stable high pressure and minimal precipitation risk. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and cloud cover explains the smaller shares for 25°C and 23°C, while extremes below 22°C or above 26°C remain low-probability outliers given current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these odds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$20,188結束日期
2026-08-30市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 12:55 AM ET**Forecast consensus from models such as GFS and ECMWF positions 24°C as the leading outcome for Paris’s maximum temperature on August 30, aligning with the 50.5% market-implied probability.** Recent runs show a cloudy regime with southwesterly flow around 15–20 km/h, limiting daytime heating near the long-term August 30 average high of 24°C. Traders have concentrated probability on 23–25°C (collectively over 98%), reflecting the narrow expected range amid stable high pressure and minimal precipitation risk. Minor model spread on exact peak timing and cloud cover explains the smaller shares for 25°C and 23°C, while extremes below 22°C or above 26°C remain low-probability outliers given current atmospheric conditions and seasonal baselines. Updated guidance ahead of resolution will refine these odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions