**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 31, 2026, centers overwhelmingly on the 58-59°F range (93% implied probability) due to official observational data from San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) METAR reports.** These show overnight lows holding at 58°F through the early morning hours before rising under persistent overcast marine layer conditions, with daytime highs reaching only the mid-60s. This aligns with National Weather Service climate summaries and forecasts noting a deep, drizzle-prone marine layer that suppressed temperatures 10–15°F below late-August normals (average low ~56°F). The positioning reflects real-time verification of surface observations rather than models, as the date has passed and data are now finalized. Historical context reinforces this: all-time August 31 lows reach 51°F but recent years cluster near 55–58°F, and the current marine layer setup produced values squarely in the favored bin. Lower-probability outcomes like 47°F or below (50%) or narrower mid-50s ranges remain possible only if an alternate station or post-analysis revision shifts the official minimum, though such adjustments are rare once METAR records close. Upcoming resolution will hinge on the precise official minimum reported by the primary data source.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於舊金山8月31日的最低溫度？
舊金山8月31日的最低溫度？
58-59°F 99.5%
50-51華氏度 20%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 20%
$2,420 交易量
$2,420 交易量
2026-08-31
47°F或以下
否
48-49°F
否
50-51華氏度
否
52-53°F
否
54-55°F
否
56-57°F
否
58-59°F
是
60-61°F
否
62-63°F
否
64-65°F
否
66°F或更高
否
58-59°F 99.5%
50-51華氏度 20%
52-53°F 20%
54-55°F 20%
$2,420 交易量
$2,420 交易量
2026-08-31
47°F或以下
$185 交易量
否
48-49°F
$146 交易量
否
50-51華氏度
$148 交易量
否
52-53°F
$32 交易量
否
54-55°F
$5 交易量
否
56-57°F
$18 交易量
否
58-59°F
$57 交易量
是
60-61°F
$365 交易量
否
62-63°F
$123 交易量
否
64-65°F
$893 交易量
否
66°F或更高
$450 交易量
否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 31, 2026, centers overwhelmingly on the 58-59°F range (93% implied probability) due to official observational data from San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) METAR reports.** These show overnight lows holding at 58°F through the early morning hours before rising under persistent overcast marine layer conditions, with daytime highs reaching only the mid-60s. This aligns with National Weather Service climate summaries and forecasts noting a deep, drizzle-prone marine layer that suppressed temperatures 10–15°F below late-August normals (average low ~56°F).
The positioning reflects real-time verification of surface observations rather than models, as the date has passed and data are now finalized. Historical context reinforces this: all-time August 31 lows reach 51°F but recent years cluster near 55–58°F, and the current marine layer setup produced values squarely in the favored bin. Lower-probability outcomes like 47°F or below (50%) or narrower mid-50s ranges remain possible only if an alternate station or post-analysis revision shifts the official minimum, though such adjustments are rare once METAR records close. Upcoming resolution will hinge on the precise official minimum reported by the primary data source.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 29, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
交易量
$2,420結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 31, 2026, centers overwhelmingly on the 58-59°F range (93% implied probability) due to official observational data from San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) METAR reports.** These show overnight lows holding at 58°F through the early morning hours before rising under persistent overcast marine layer conditions, with daytime highs reaching only the mid-60s. This aligns with National Weather Service climate summaries and forecasts noting a deep, drizzle-prone marine layer that suppressed temperatures 10–15°F below late-August normals (average low ~56°F).
The positioning reflects real-time verification of surface observations rather than models, as the date has passed and data are now finalized. Historical context reinforces this: all-time August 31 lows reach 51°F but recent years cluster near 55–58°F, and the current marine layer setup produced values squarely in the favored bin. Lower-probability outcomes like 47°F or below (50%) or narrower mid-50s ranges remain possible only if an alternate station or post-analysis revision shifts the official minimum, though such adjustments are rare once METAR records close. Upcoming resolution will hinge on the precise official minimum reported by the primary data source.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,420結束日期
2026-08-31市場開放時間
Aug 29, 2026, 7:29 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 31, 2026, centers overwhelmingly on the 58-59°F range (93% implied probability) due to official observational data from San Francisco International Airport (KSFO) METAR reports.** These show overnight lows holding at 58°F through the early morning hours before rising under persistent overcast marine layer conditions, with daytime highs reaching only the mid-60s. This aligns with National Weather Service climate summaries and forecasts noting a deep, drizzle-prone marine layer that suppressed temperatures 10–15°F below late-August normals (average low ~56°F). The positioning reflects real-time verification of surface observations rather than models, as the date has passed and data are now finalized. Historical context reinforces this: all-time August 31 lows reach 51°F but recent years cluster near 55–58°F, and the current marine layer setup produced values squarely in the favored bin. Lower-probability outcomes like 47°F or below (50%) or narrower mid-50s ranges remain possible only if an alternate station or post-analysis revision shifts the official minimum, though such adjustments are rare once METAR records close. Upcoming resolution will hinge on the precise official minimum reported by the primary data source.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions