**Forecast uncertainty from variable cloud cover, precipitation, and light winds is the main driver keeping market-implied probabilities closely matched across 21–27°C for Taipei’s October 2 minimum temperature.** Multiple models converge on overnight lows near 23–24°C under partly cloudy skies with a 60–90% chance of showers or thunderstorms, which limit radiative cooling compared to clear conditions. Northeast monsoon influences and elevated humidity (often 80–95%) further moderate temperature drops, while wind speeds of 5–10 mph reduce the likelihood of sharper declines. Historical early-October minima in Taipei average 21–23°C, but short-term model spreads and evolving rain timing create the observed distribution of trader consensus, with extremes below 21°C or above 27°C priced very low due to current atmospheric patterns. Updated runs from Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration and global ensembles will provide the next key data points before resolution.