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icon for 莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？
政治·哈梅內伊

莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？

icon for 莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？
政治·哈梅內伊

莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？

$1,163,236 交易量

2026-05-31
Polymarket

$1,163,236 交易量

Polymarket

5月31日

$121,902 交易量

1%

6月30日

$69,724 交易量

3%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 as supreme leader days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrike that also wounded the son. Since his appointment he has made no verified public appearances or statements, with multiple reports citing severe facial and leg injuries requiring treatment in Qom and raising questions about his capacity to govern. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, diluting the office's traditional concentration of power. Ongoing regional conflict, U.S. sanctions on Mojtaba, and internal regime pressures over succession legitimacy create the principal drivers for trader assessments of whether he departs Iran or is removed from office by specific deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,163,236
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Mojtaba Khamenei was selected by Iran's Assembly of Experts in March 2026 as supreme leader days after his father Ali Khamenei was killed in a February 28 U.S.-Israeli airstrike that also wounded the son. Since his appointment he has made no verified public appearances or statements, with multiple reports citing severe facial and leg injuries requiring treatment in Qom and raising questions about his capacity to govern. Decision-making authority has shifted toward a collective of Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders, diluting the office's traditional concentration of power. Ongoing regional conflict, U.S. sanctions on Mojtaba, and internal regime pressures over succession legitimacy create the principal drivers for trader assessments of whether he departs Iran or is removed from office by specific deadlines.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".

If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,163,236
結束日期
2026-04-30
市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 4:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Mojtaba Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "6月30日" at 3%, followed by "5月31日" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 3¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 3% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？" has generated $1.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 10, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？" is "6月30日" at just 3%, with "5月31日" close behind at 1%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "莫塔巴·哈梅內伊離開伊朗的時間是... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.