Skip to main content
icon for 紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者

icon for 紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者
政治·主要

紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者

Adriano Espaillat 71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅 1.5%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$22,629 交易量

Adriano Espaillat 71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier 29%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅 1.5%

Theo Chino-Tavarez <1%

Polymarket

$22,629 交易量

Adriano Espaillat

$5,371 交易量

71%

Darializa Avila Chevalier

$3,126 交易量

29%

奧斯卡·羅梅羅

$5,217 交易量

2%

Theo Chino-Tavarez

$1,890 交易量

<1%

梅根·羅德里格斯

$2,042 交易量

<1%

賈利爾·阿馬多

$934 交易量

<1%

詹姆斯·費爾頓·基思

$2,195 交易量

<1%

Matt Miller

$1,855 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win New York's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by his fundraising superiority—with over $1 million cash on hand versus challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's $220,000—and fresh endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus announced this week. Avila Chevalier, at 28.5%, benefits from DSA, Justice Democrats, and UAW backing amid progressive pushback on Espaillat's Israel stance, with her April internal poll showing a post-messaging tie (46%-35%). Traders prioritize Espaillat's name recognition and establishment machine in the Dominican-heavy Upper Manhattan and Bronx district over the challenger's grassroots surge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,629
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Adriano Espaillat holds a commanding trader consensus at 70.5% implied probability to win New York's 13th Congressional District Democratic primary on June 23, bolstered by his fundraising superiority—with over $1 million cash on hand versus challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier's $220,000—and fresh endorsements from the Congressional Progressive Caucus PAC, Congressional Hispanic Caucus, and Congressional Black Caucus announced this week. Avila Chevalier, at 28.5%, benefits from DSA, Justice Democrats, and UAW backing amid progressive pushback on Espaillat's Israel stance, with her April internal poll showing a post-messaging tie (46%-35%). Traders prioritize Espaillat's name recognition and establishment machine in the Dominican-heavy Upper Manhattan and Bronx district over the challenger's grassroots surge.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$22,629
結束日期
2026-06-23
市場開放時間
Dec 19, 2025, 3:59 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Adriano Espaillat" at 71%, followed by "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 71¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $22.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" is "Adriano Espaillat" at 71%, meaning the market assigns a 71% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Darializa Avila Chevalier" at 28%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "紐約-13民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.