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icon for Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者
世界·東加

Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者

icon for Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者
世界·東加

Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者

Lei Paasi 32%

Samiuela Vea 29%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 28%

Alvin Lafu Sika 26%

Polymarket
最新

Lei Paasi 32%

Samiuela Vea 29%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki 28%

Alvin Lafu Sika 26%

Polymarket
最新

Lei Paasi

$29 交易量

32%

Samiuela Vea

$29 交易量

29%

Mele Teusivi 'Amanaki

$29 交易量

28%

Alvin Lafu Sika

$29 交易量

26%

Sione Harvard Tupouniua

$29 交易量

26%

Malakai Matafonuafo'ou 'Ofa ki Wakawaka Koloamatangi

$29 交易量

24%

‘Olioni Manoa

$29 交易量

24%

Ilaisa Lepolo Taunisila

$29 交易量

24%

Mounu Uaisele

$349 交易量

10%

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
交易量
$582
結束日期
2026-10-08
市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).The crowded field of nine candidates for the Tongatapu 2 by-election on 8 October has produced closely matched probabilities, reflecting vote fragmentation in Tonga’s first-past-the-post system. The vacancy arose after Semisi Sika was unseated by parliament following his 2025 election conviction on bribery and campaign finance violations, with the prior incumbent ‘Uhilamoelangi Fasi opting not to stand. Recent nominations on 2–3 September confirmed a split among local contenders including Malakai Koloamatangi, Samiuela Vea, Alvin Lafu Sika, Mele ‘Amanaki, and Mounu Uaisele, with some prospective entrants withdrawing to consolidate support behind others. Absent recent polling data or dominant endorsements, trader consensus shows no single frontrunner, leaving room for late campaign developments or turnout patterns to shift the outcome.

A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga.

If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).A by-election in the Tongan constituency of Tongatapu 2 is scheduled to take place on October 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Tongatapu 2 by-election to the Legislative Assembly of Tonga. If the result of this election isn’t known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Tonga Electoral Commission (https://elections.gov.to/; https://www.facebook.com/KomisoniFili).
交易量
$582
結束日期
2026-10-08
市場開放時間
Sep 9, 2026, 5:47 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Lei Paasi" at 32%, followed by "Samiuela Vea" at 29%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 32¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 9, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者" is "Lei Paasi" at 32%, meaning the market assigns a 32% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Samiuela Vea" at 29%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Tongatapu 2補選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.