The Trump administration has expanded federal equity positions in strategic sectors since mid-2025, converting CHIPS Act grants and Office of Strategic Capital loans into minority stakes, warrants, or preferred shares at roughly 42 companies across semiconductors, critical minerals, quantum computing, drones, and energy. Intel’s roughly 10 percent holding and the November 2 Neros drone commitment illustrate the pattern, which emphasizes supply-chain security and national-security priorities over traditional subsidies. With the market resolving December 31, 2026, remaining lame-duck announcements could still add outcomes before the new Congress—where Democrats gained seats—assumes oversight authority and may investigate or constrain further deals. Trader probabilities therefore track which additional firms in defense tech, advanced manufacturing, and rare-earth supply chains are most likely to receive binding equity commitments in the narrow remaining window.