The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-09-25
↑ 795美元
3%
↑ $790
5%
↑ 785美元
5%
↑ $780
12%
↑ 775美元
32%
↑ $770
60%
↑ 765美元
91%
↓ $760
70%
↓ $755
40%
↓ 750美元
22%
↓ $745
11%
↓ $740
7%
↓ $735
6%
↓ $730
4%
$3,757 交易量
↑ 795美元
$320 交易量
3%
↑ $790
$0 交易量
5%
↑ 785美元
$0 交易量
5%
↑ $780
$453 交易量
12%
↑ 775美元
$239 交易量
32%
↑ $770
$563 交易量
60%
↑ 765美元
$983 交易量
91%
↓ $760
$100 交易量
70%
↓ $755
$62 交易量
40%
↓ 750美元
$85 交易量
22%
↓ $745
$771 交易量
11%
↓ $740
$0 交易量
7%
↓ $735
$120 交易量
6%
↓ $730
$60 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$3,757結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point after market creation and during the week of September 21 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPY) has a final "High" or "Low" price equal to or beyond (above for ↑ High Prices, below for ↓ Low Prices) the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
Only prices achieved during the regular trading hours of the primary exchange on which the listed security trades (typically 9:30 AM – 4:00 PM ET) will be considered. Prices occurring during pre-market or after-hours trading will not qualify.
Prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding.
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth.
The target price will be adjusted proportionally to reflect any stock splits. Resolution will be based on the historical price data as shown on Pyth after any adjustments have been applied.
The resolution source for this market is Pyth — specifically, the S&P 500 (SPY) "High" and "Low" prices available at https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD, with the chart settings configured for 1-minute candles.
Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter. Any timestamp within the listed market time frame may be used to view the relevant candle data (e.g., https://pythdata.app/explore/Equity.US.SPY%2FUSD?t=1773432000)
If the relevant Pyth data is unavailable due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption that prevents verification of the required 1-minute candle data, the official daily high/low price published by the primary exchange on which the listed security trades will be used to determine whether the listed price was reached during the applicable trading session.
交易量
$3,757結束日期
2026-09-25市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2026, 6:01 PM ETThe Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point rate hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range on September 16, coupled with updated projections showing 16 of 18 officials favoring at least one more increase by year-end, stands as the dominant factor shaping near-term S&P 500 expectations. Hawkish commentary from Chair Warsh on persistent inflation—driven by elevated oil prices amid geopolitical tensions—pushed 10-year Treasury yields above 4.9% and triggered initial equity volatility, with the index closing the week near 7,650 after mixed sessions. Solid labor data, including near-historic-low jobless claims, reinforced the case for tighter policy while supporting growth forecasts around 2.3% for 2026. Traders are now focused on this week’s ADP employment report, preliminary S&P Global PMI releases, and initial claims for clues on whether the labor market can withstand further tightening without derailing the equity advance. Market-implied odds reflect ongoing uncertainty around the pace of any additional hikes and their impact on valuations.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions