Aziz Akhannouch’s January 2026 decision not to seek another term as leader of the National Rally of Independents or contest the September 23 parliamentary elections has established the primary driver behind current trader positioning. Under Morocco’s constitutional process, the King appoints the prime minister from the party securing the most seats in the House of Representatives, making Akhannouch’s withdrawal from both party leadership and the ballot a structural barrier to his continued tenure. His party subsequently selected Mohamed Chaouki as its new president in February, further embedding the leadership transition ahead of the vote. With no major political reversals or royal interventions reported in recent weeks, the implied probability reflects broad consensus that post-election government formation will occur under new leadership by year-end.