Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于少于40 87%
40-64 13%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$362,031 交易量
$362,031 交易量
2026-08-12
少于40
87%
40-64
13%
65-89
<1%
90-114
<1%
115-139
<1%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
少于40 87%
40-64 13%
65-89 <1%
90-114 <1%
$362,031 交易量
$362,031 交易量
2026-08-12
少于40
$97,689 交易量
87%
40-64
$72,713 交易量
13%
65-89
$106,558 交易量
<1%
90-114
$52,578 交易量
<1%
115-139
$15,070 交易量
<1%
140-164
$7,172 交易量
<1%
165-189
$5,138 交易量
<1%
190-214
$3,388 交易量
<1%
215-239
$887 交易量
<1%
240+
$838 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ET
交易量
$362,031结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 10 12:00 PM ET to August 12, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$362,031结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 8, 2026, 12:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elon Musk’s measured posting pace over August 10–12 has anchored trader sentiment around the <40 bracket at 87% implied probability, reflecting a stretch of routine engagement centered on Grok Build features, SpaceX updates, and brief replies rather than high-volume bursts. Recent days show consistent but contained output—roughly a dozen main-feed posts, quotes, and reposts daily—without the acute company announcements, viral memes, or political developments that typically accelerate his activity. Historical patterns during quieter mid-August windows support this consensus, as Musk’s baseline averages 15–25 qualifying posts when focused on ongoing projects at xAI and Tesla. With the three-day window closing imminently and no late catalysts apparent, higher brackets remain sidelined below 1% combined.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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