Randy Fine holds an 84.5% implied probability in the August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 6th Congressional District due to his status as incumbent after winning the 2025 special election by 14 points, combined with dominant fundraising that exceeded $200,000 in the first quarter of 2026 and a Trump endorsement that reinforces establishment support in this solidly Republican district. Dan Bilzerian’s 9.2% share stems from his national name recognition as a social media influencer following his early April filing, though his limited local ties and residency considerations have capped momentum among primary voters. Aaron Baker trails at 6.4% through grassroots positioning as a district resident focused on local issues, yet trails significantly in reported receipts compared with Fine. The remaining candidates register negligible shares, reflecting their minimal campaign infrastructure and visibility. Trader consensus in this low-turnout primary centers on Fine’s resource and institutional advantages heading into the August filing deadline.