John E. Sununu holds a commanding lead in the New Hampshire Republican Senate primary, reflecting consistent polling margins of 30–40 points over Scott Brown in surveys through mid-August 2026. His advantages stem from deep name recognition as a former U.S. senator and representative, combined with family ties to two former governors that anchor him in state political networks. National Republican support, including NRSC coordination and a Trump endorsement, has further bolstered his position ahead of the September 8 primary. Brown, a former Massachusetts senator now based in New Hampshire, trails due to comparatively lower local familiarity despite his prior Senate experience. Minor candidates such as Chris Sununu and Dan Innis register negligible support. A sudden shift would require major late developments like an unforeseen scandal or sharp turnout change, neither of which current evidence indicates.