Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and global models indicate daytime highs in Busan on July 10 most likely peaking near 31–32°C, driving the near-even market split between those outcomes. Coastal sea breezes and elevated humidity typical of the East Sea region moderate afternoon temperatures, while variable cloud cover and scattered precipitation reduce solar heating enough to prevent stronger warming. These factors create tight uncertainty around the daily maximum, as small shifts in timing or intensity of any showers could tip the observed high between 30°C and 33°C. Updated model runs and official KMA guidance over the next 48 hours will refine the range ahead of market resolution.