Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on July 9?
29°C 33%
30°C 24.8%
28°C 17%
31°C 11.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-09
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
3%
27°C
5%
28°C
17%
29°C
33%
30°C
25%
31°C
12%
32°C
4%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 33%
30°C 24.8%
28°C 17%
31°C 11.8%
最新
最新
2026-07-09
23°C or below
$251 交易量
<1%
24°C
$167 交易量
<1%
25°C
$38 交易量
<1%
26°C
$87 交易量
3%
27°C
$74 交易量
5%
28°C
$91 交易量
17%
29°C
$116 交易量
33%
30°C
$7 交易量
25%
31°C
$15 交易量
12%
32°C
$25 交易量
4%
33°C or higher
$98 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$969结束日期
2026-07-09市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$969结束日期
2026-07-09市场开放时间
Jul 7, 2026, 12:02 AM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities to a 29°C or 30°C maximum in Tokyo on July 9 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global models cluster around these values amid lingering influence of the Pacific High. Recent seasonal outlooks noted above-normal warmth for early July 2026, yet the immediate pattern features moderate subtropical ridging with variable cloud cover and southeasterly flow that limits further intensification. Differentiation among 28–31°C hinges on small shifts in boundary-layer moisture, daytime insolation, and urban heat-island amplification; any increase in low-level convergence or thicker cloud decks could cap the peak near 28°C, while clearer skies would support 30–31°C readings. Updated model runs and official guidance issued within the next 24–48 hours will likely narrow this narrow probability band.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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