Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 10?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on July 10?
19°C 41%
18°C 26%
20°C 15%
17°C 10.0%
最新
$16,911 交易量
最新
$16,911 交易量
2026-07-10
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
3%
17°C
10%
18°C
26%
19°C
41%
20°C
15%
21°C
1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 41%
18°C 26%
20°C 15%
17°C 10.0%
最新
$16,911 交易量
最新
$16,911 交易量
2026-07-10
13°C or below
$330 交易量
<1%
14°C
$515 交易量
<1%
15°C
$785 交易量
<1%
16°C
$1,424 交易量
3%
17°C
$2,233 交易量
10%
18°C
$1,899 交易量
26%
19°C
$2,637 交易量
41%
20°C
$3,991 交易量
15%
21°C
$1,570 交易量
1%
22°C
$812 交易量
<1%
23°C or higher
$715 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$16,911结束日期
2026-07-10市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,911结束日期
2026-07-10市场开放时间
Jul 8, 2026, 1:02 AM ETRecent model consensus from ensembles like ECMWF and GFS points to a modest high of 18–20 °C in Warsaw on July 10, driven by persistent northwesterly flow and increased cloud cover associated with a weak Atlantic trough suppressing daytime heating. This setup contrasts with typical early-July climatology of 23–24 °C maxima, producing the tight clustering of market probabilities around 19 °C (30.5 %), 18 °C (21.5 %), and 20 °C (18.5 %). Key differentiating variables include the precise timing of any clearing, boundary-layer mixing depth, and 2-meter temperature bias in the 48-hour window; small shifts in these can swing the daily peak by 1–2 °C. Traders are weighting the latest 00Z and 12Z runs heavily, with fresh data releases expected to refine resolution ahead of the close.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题