Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 5?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on July 5?
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-07-05
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
21%
29°C
36%
30°C
22%
31°C
6%
32°C
4%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 22%
28°C 21%
31°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-07-05
24°C or below
$52 交易量
<1%
25°C
$394 交易量
1%
26°C
$422 交易量
1%
27°C
$262 交易量
4%
28°C
$177 交易量
21%
29°C
$1,028 交易量
36%
30°C
$3,034 交易量
22%
31°C
$201 交易量
6%
32°C
$311 交易量
4%
33°C
$369 交易量
1%
34°C or higher
$61 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$6,296结束日期
2026-07-05市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$6,296结束日期
2026-07-05市场开放时间
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest implied probability to a 29°C peak in Wuhan on July 5, yet the spread across 27–32°C underscores genuine forecast uncertainty at this lead time. Primary drivers include the strength and position of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, which steers warm, moist southerly flow, alongside the timing and coverage of afternoon convection or cloud decks that can suppress maximum temperatures. Ensemble guidance shows typical 2–4°C spreads driven by upstream shortwave troughs and moisture advection, with historical July climatology indicating frequent 28–31°C outcomes under similar patterns. New model cycles and surface observations over the next 48 hours will narrow resolution thresholds tied to official station readings.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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