Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to overnight radiative cooling under mostly clear, high-pressure conditions yielding a Paris minimum near 21–22 °C on July 14, consistent with the tightly bunched market-implied probabilities around those levels. Persistent warm-air advection from the south and elevated dew points have kept recent overnight lows in the 20–22 °C range, limiting further cooling despite light winds. Urban heat-island effects in central Paris further anchor the floor above typical July climatology of ~14–16 °C. Resolution hinges on the final 00–06 UTC observations; any increase in cloud cover or stronger boundary-layer mixing in the next 48-hour model updates could shift the minimum upward, while clearer, calmer conditions would favor the lower tail of the distribution.