Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于7月12日东京最低气温？
7月12日东京最低气温？
25°C 50%
24°C 21%
26°C 17%
27°C 4.2%
最新
最新
2026-07-12
20°C或以下
1%
21°C
2%
22°C
3%
23°C
2%
24°C
21%
25°C
50%
26°C
17%
27°C
4%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C或以上
<1%
25°C 50%
24°C 21%
26°C 17%
27°C 4.2%
最新
最新
2026-07-12
20°C或以下
$132 交易量
1%
21°C
$87 交易量
2%
22°C
$25 交易量
3%
23°C
$25 交易量
2%
24°C
$8 交易量
21%
25°C
$91 交易量
50%
26°C
$33 交易量
17%
27°C
$5 交易量
4%
28°C
$65 交易量
1%
29°C
$142 交易量
1%
30°C或以上
$583 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$1,195结束日期
2026-07-12市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,195结束日期
2026-07-12市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETForecast models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and global ensembles currently favor a Tokyo minimum temperature near 24–25 °C on July 12, with the market’s tightly bunched probabilities (24 °C at 34 %, 25 °C at 38.5 %, 26 °C at 34 %) reflecting this consensus amid lingering uncertainty. Persistent cloud cover and scattered showers are expected to reduce nocturnal radiative cooling while elevated humidity and above-normal seasonal baselines limit further drops. Key variables include the precise timing of any clearing, which could allow brief radiative losses, and small revisions in 48-hour model runs ahead of the event. Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes around the forecast median while assigning low odds to extremes below 21 °C or above 29 °C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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