Recent polling in the Makerfield by-election, scheduled for 18 June, has shown Restore Britain’s candidate Rebecca Shepherd at 5–7 percent in independent surveys, well below the 10 percent threshold, while Reform UK’s Robert Kenyon holds a stronger position on the right. The party, contesting its first Westminster seat after splitting from Reform UK, has released internal canvassing data claiming higher support, but these have not aligned with constituency polls from firms such as Survation. Limited name recognition outside online circles, competition for similar voters, and the focus on the Labour–Reform contest involving Andy Burnham have kept expectations contained. Traders appear to weight the most recent survey evidence over party claims when assessing the likelihood of a double-digit result.