The US trade embargo against Cuba, reinforced by executive actions and new sanctions in the Trump administration's second term, remains the dominant barrier to any McDonald's announcement. These measures include tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded restricted-entity lists, and an oil blockade that has deepened Cuba's economic crisis, limiting commercial openings for US-headquartered firms without specific OFAC licenses that are seldom issued for consumer retail. Cuban officials have signaled openness to foreign franchises in principle, yet no regulatory pathway or bilateral easing has materialized through mid-2026. Traders price the 93% probability of no announcement accordingly, as historical precedent and current policy continuity indicate that meaningful US-Cuba commercial normalization would require sustained diplomatic shifts unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
7% 概率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The US trade embargo against Cuba, reinforced by executive actions and new sanctions in the Trump administration's second term, remains the dominant barrier to any McDonald's announcement. These measures include tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded restricted-entity lists, and an oil blockade that has deepened Cuba's economic crisis, limiting commercial openings for US-headquartered firms without specific OFAC licenses that are seldom issued for consumer retail. Cuban officials have signaled openness to foreign franchises in principle, yet no regulatory pathway or bilateral easing has materialized through mid-2026. Traders price the 93% probability of no announcement accordingly, as historical precedent and current policy continuity indicate that meaningful US-Cuba commercial normalization would require sustained diplomatic shifts unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
交易量
$1,394结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The US trade embargo against Cuba, reinforced by executive actions and new sanctions in the Trump administration's second term, remains the dominant barrier to any McDonald's announcement. These measures include tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded restricted-entity lists, and an oil blockade that has deepened Cuba's economic crisis, limiting commercial openings for US-headquartered firms without specific OFAC licenses that are seldom issued for consumer retail. Cuban officials have signaled openness to foreign franchises in principle, yet no regulatory pathway or bilateral easing has materialized through mid-2026. Traders price the 93% probability of no announcement accordingly, as historical precedent and current policy continuity indicate that meaningful US-Cuba commercial normalization would require sustained diplomatic shifts unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if McDonald’s Corporation, or a McDonald’s franchisee or representative authorized to open or operate a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, announces that it will open or has opened any McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba, or if such an opening is otherwise confirmed, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
An official announcement made within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether an actual McDonald’s restaurant opening subsequently takes place within the timeframe.
Any opening of a McDonald’s restaurant in Cuba will qualify regardless of its exact location.
Announcements that do not clearly commit to opening a McDonald’s restaurant, such as general business expansion statements, exploratory comments, or conditional announcements, will not count. Unlicensed restaurants, imitation restaurants, or other businesses using McDonald’s branding without authorization from McDonald’s Corporation will not qualify.
The resolution source will be official statements from McDonald’s Corporation or its authorized representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$1,394结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jun 25, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The US trade embargo against Cuba, reinforced by executive actions and new sanctions in the Trump administration's second term, remains the dominant barrier to any McDonald's announcement. These measures include tariffs on third-country oil suppliers, expanded restricted-entity lists, and an oil blockade that has deepened Cuba's economic crisis, limiting commercial openings for US-headquartered firms without specific OFAC licenses that are seldom issued for consumer retail. Cuban officials have signaled openness to foreign franchises in principle, yet no regulatory pathway or bilateral easing has materialized through mid-2026. Traders price the 93% probability of no announcement accordingly, as historical precedent and current policy continuity indicate that meaningful US-Cuba commercial normalization would require sustained diplomatic shifts unlikely before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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