Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9.5% implied probability for a megaquake—Magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting the rarity of such events amid subdued global seismic activity in 2026. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports no Magnitude 8.0+ quakes year-to-date, with the largest being a 7.5 near Tonga in March; recent advisories, like Japan's post-7.7 event megaquake alert for the Nankai Trough, expired April 28 without escalation, returning risk to baseline levels around 0.1% per week in high-hazard zones. Current monitoring shows no unusual foreshock swarms, strain signals, or activity spikes in key subduction zones such as Cascadia or Sumatra. While sudden ruptures in seismic gaps remain possible, new USGS operational earthquake forecasts due mid-May could refine short-term probabilities if patterns shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月30日前发生大地震？
6月30日前发生大地震？
是
$66,081 交易量
$66,081 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$66,081 交易量
$66,081 交易量
2026-06-30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9.5% implied probability for a megaquake—Magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting the rarity of such events amid subdued global seismic activity in 2026. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports no Magnitude 8.0+ quakes year-to-date, with the largest being a 7.5 near Tonga in March; recent advisories, like Japan's post-7.7 event megaquake alert for the Nankai Trough, expired April 28 without escalation, returning risk to baseline levels around 0.1% per week in high-hazard zones. Current monitoring shows no unusual foreshock swarms, strain signals, or activity spikes in key subduction zones such as Cascadia or Sumatra. While sudden ruptures in seismic gaps remain possible, new USGS operational earthquake forecasts due mid-May could refine short-term probabilities if patterns shift.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$66,081结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9.5% implied probability for a megaquake—Magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting the rarity of such events amid subdued global seismic activity in 2026. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports no Magnitude 8.0+ quakes year-to-date, with the largest being a 7.5 near Tonga in March; recent advisories, like Japan's post-7.7 event megaquake alert for the Nankai Trough, expired April 28 without escalation, returning risk to baseline levels around 0.1% per week in high-hazard zones. Current monitoring shows no unusual foreshock swarms, strain signals, or activity spikes in key subduction zones such as Cascadia or Sumatra. While sudden ruptures in seismic gaps remain possible, new USGS operational earthquake forecasts due mid-May could refine short-term probabilities if patterns shift.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$66,081结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a mere 9.5% implied probability for a megaquake—Magnitude 8.0 or greater anywhere worldwide by June 30—reflecting the rarity of such events amid subdued global seismic activity in 2026. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reports no Magnitude 8.0+ quakes year-to-date, with the largest being a 7.5 near Tonga in March; recent advisories, like Japan's post-7.7 event megaquake alert for the Nankai Trough, expired April 28 without escalation, returning risk to baseline levels around 0.1% per week in high-hazard zones. Current monitoring shows no unusual foreshock swarms, strain signals, or activity spikes in key subduction zones such as Cascadia or Sumatra. While sudden ruptures in seismic gaps remain possible, new USGS operational earthquake forecasts due mid-May could refine short-term probabilities if patterns shift.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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