Following the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election, in which the SNP secured the largest share of seats though short of a majority, John Swinney as party leader holds a near-certain position for re-nomination as First Minister. Incumbency since 2024, combined with the absence of any internal SNP leadership contest, has reinforced trader consensus around his continued tenure. Parliament is expected to vote on his appointment in the coming days, with negotiations focused on securing support from other parties excluding Reform UK. Potential challenges remain limited but could arise from a sudden loss of confidence vote, unexpected coalition arrangements among opposition parties, or an unforeseen resignation tied to policy setbacks or internal pressures.