John Swinney's role as Scottish National Party leader and incumbent First Minister has solidified trader expectations following the SNP's win of the most seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. With the party short of an outright majority, Swinney has moved quickly to outline plans for a minority government, inviting other parties to discussions while ruling out talks with Reform UK and reaffirming commitments to pursue a second independence referendum. This sequence of developments has driven the overwhelming market consensus around his continuation in office. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen leadership challenge within the SNP or failure to secure the necessary parliamentary nomination later this month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于John Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,060 交易量
$11,060 交易量
2026-05-07
John Swinney
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
1%
Malcolm Offord
1%
Russell Findlay
1%
Anas Sarwar
<1%
Ross Greer
<1%
Gillian Mackay
<1%
John Swinney 99.6%
Alex Cole-Hamilton <1%
Malcolm Offord <1%
Russell Findlay <1%
$11,060 交易量
$11,060 交易量
2026-05-07
John Swinney
$3,218 交易量
100%
Alex Cole-Hamilton
$1,346 交易量
1%
Malcolm Offord
$912 交易量
1%
Russell Findlay
$2,554 交易量
1%
Anas Sarwar
$1,945 交易量
<1%
Ross Greer
$515 交易量
<1%
Gillian Mackay
$570 交易量
<1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney's role as Scottish National Party leader and incumbent First Minister has solidified trader expectations following the SNP's win of the most seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. With the party short of an outright majority, Swinney has moved quickly to outline plans for a minority government, inviting other parties to discussions while ruling out talks with Reform UK and reaffirming commitments to pursue a second independence referendum. This sequence of developments has driven the overwhelming market consensus around his continuation in office. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen leadership challenge within the SNP or failure to secure the necessary parliamentary nomination later this month.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ET
交易量
$11,060结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.John Swinney's role as Scottish National Party leader and incumbent First Minister has solidified trader expectations following the SNP's win of the most seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. With the party short of an outright majority, Swinney has moved quickly to outline plans for a minority government, inviting other parties to discussions while ruling out talks with Reform UK and reaffirming commitments to pursue a second independence referendum. This sequence of developments has driven the overwhelming market consensus around his continuation in office. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen leadership challenge within the SNP or failure to secure the necessary parliamentary nomination later this month.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Scotland on May 7, 2026.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the individual who is formally appointed as First Minister of Scotland following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally appointed as First Minister following the 2026 Scottish parliamentary elections. Any interim or caretaker head of government will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such First Minister is appointed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Scotland; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,060结束日期
2026-05-07市场开放时间
Apr 23, 2026, 6:19 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...John Swinney's role as Scottish National Party leader and incumbent First Minister has solidified trader expectations following the SNP's win of the most seats in the May 2026 Scottish Parliament election. With the party short of an outright majority, Swinney has moved quickly to outline plans for a minority government, inviting other parties to discussions while ruling out talks with Reform UK and reaffirming commitments to pursue a second independence referendum. This sequence of developments has driven the overwhelming market consensus around his continuation in office. A realistic shift in odds would require an unforeseen leadership challenge within the SNP or failure to secure the necessary parliamentary nomination later this month.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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