Traders see a tight contest between exactly two and three ChatGPT outage days in May 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has shown improved reliability after recent data-center expansions and serving optimizations, yet still faces occasional spikes from surging usage. The 42.5 percent market-implied probability for two days edges out the 35 percent for three largely due to fewer reported incidents so far this month compared with historical peaks, while the 18.5 percent chance of four or more reflects lingering risk from any major product update or developer conference that could overload systems. With May more than half complete, remaining weeks will hinge on traffic patterns and any unannounced capacity additions that could shift the final tally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 42%
3 31%
4+ 19%
<2 11%
$16,745 交易量
$16,745 交易量
2026-05-31
<2
11%
2
39%
3
35%
4+
19%
2 42%
3 31%
4+ 19%
<2 11%
$16,745 交易量
$16,745 交易量
2026-05-31
<2
$6,559 交易量
11%
2
$2,850 交易量
39%
3
$3,731 交易量
35%
4+
$3,606 交易量
19%
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a tight contest between exactly two and three ChatGPT outage days in May 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has shown improved reliability after recent data-center expansions and serving optimizations, yet still faces occasional spikes from surging usage. The 42.5 percent market-implied probability for two days edges out the 35 percent for three largely due to fewer reported incidents so far this month compared with historical peaks, while the 18.5 percent chance of four or more reflects lingering risk from any major product update or developer conference that could overload systems. With May more than half complete, remaining weeks will hinge on traffic patterns and any unannounced capacity additions that could shift the final tally.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
交易量
$16,745结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders see a tight contest between exactly two and three ChatGPT outage days in May 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has shown improved reliability after recent data-center expansions and serving optimizations, yet still faces occasional spikes from surging usage. The 42.5 percent market-implied probability for two days edges out the 35 percent for three largely due to fewer reported incidents so far this month compared with historical peaks, while the 18.5 percent chance of four or more reflects lingering risk from any major product update or developer conference that could overload systems. With May more than half complete, remaining weeks will hinge on traffic patterns and any unannounced capacity additions that could shift the final tally.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during May 2026 (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$16,745结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Apr 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tight contest between exactly two and three ChatGPT outage days in May 2026 because OpenAI’s large language model infrastructure has shown improved reliability after recent data-center expansions and serving optimizations, yet still faces occasional spikes from surging usage. The 42.5 percent market-implied probability for two days edges out the 35 percent for three largely due to fewer reported incidents so far this month compared with historical peaks, while the 18.5 percent chance of four or more reflects lingering risk from any major product update or developer conference that could overload systems. With May more than half complete, remaining weeks will hinge on traffic patterns and any unannounced capacity additions that could shift the final tally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题