Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, have driven recent naval activity and elevated energy-market volatility. U.S. Central Command’s “Project Freedom” operation, launched in early May 2026, has already facilitated multiple guided-missile destroyer transits while countering Iranian interdiction attempts, directly influencing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that remain elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. Allied deployments, including the U.K.’s HMS Dragon and reported Indian and Pakistani escorts in adjacent waters, reflect coordinated efforts to restore safe passage ahead of the May 31 resolution window. These developments continue to shape implied probabilities on Polymarket by linking naval presence to measurable impacts on Brent crude benchmarks, VLCC freight costs, and broader supply-chain risk premia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,006,978 交易量
2026-05-31
United Kingdom
4%
France
4%
Germany
1%
Italy
1%
Netherlands
1%
Japan
1%
Canada
<1%
India
2%
Greece
<1%
Pakistan
1%
Saudi Arabia
2%
UAE
5%
Bahrain
2%
Qatar
<1%
Kuwait
2%
Oman
1%
South Korea
<1%
Australia
<1%
$1,006,978 交易量
United Kingdom
$162,798 交易量
4%
France
$95,735 交易量
4%
Germany
$166,717 交易量
1%
Italy
$74,400 交易量
1%
Netherlands
$50,968 交易量
1%
Japan
$112,031 交易量
1%
Canada
$19,730 交易量
<1%
India
$7,407 交易量
2%
Greece
$18,380 交易量
<1%
Pakistan
$11,940 交易量
1%
Saudi Arabia
$20,310 交易量
2%
UAE
$2,770 交易量
5%
Bahrain
$19,728 交易量
2%
Qatar
$5,626 交易量
<1%
Kuwait
$3,145 交易量
2%
Oman
$4,498 交易量
1%
South Korea
$83,114 交易量
<1%
Australia
$72,042 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, have driven recent naval activity and elevated energy-market volatility. U.S. Central Command’s “Project Freedom” operation, launched in early May 2026, has already facilitated multiple guided-missile destroyer transits while countering Iranian interdiction attempts, directly influencing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that remain elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. Allied deployments, including the U.K.’s HMS Dragon and reported Indian and Pakistani escorts in adjacent waters, reflect coordinated efforts to restore safe passage ahead of the May 31 resolution window. These developments continue to shape implied probabilities on Polymarket by linking naval presence to measurable impacts on Brent crude benchmarks, VLCC freight costs, and broader supply-chain risk premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
市场开放时间： May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
交易量
$1,006,978结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, have driven recent naval activity and elevated energy-market volatility. U.S. Central Command’s “Project Freedom” operation, launched in early May 2026, has already facilitated multiple guided-missile destroyer transits while countering Iranian interdiction attempts, directly influencing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that remain elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. Allied deployments, including the U.K.’s HMS Dragon and reported Indian and Pakistani escorts in adjacent waters, reflect coordinated efforts to restore safe passage ahead of the May 31 resolution window. These developments continue to shape implied probabilities on Polymarket by linking naval presence to measurable impacts on Brent crude benchmarks, VLCC freight costs, and broader supply-chain risk premia.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations include statements such as official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$1,006,978结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
May 5, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20 percent of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, have driven recent naval activity and elevated energy-market volatility. U.S. Central Command’s “Project Freedom” operation, launched in early May 2026, has already facilitated multiple guided-missile destroyer transits while countering Iranian interdiction attempts, directly influencing tanker charter rates and marine insurance premiums that remain elevated relative to pre-crisis levels. Allied deployments, including the U.K.’s HMS Dragon and reported Indian and Pakistani escorts in adjacent waters, reflect coordinated efforts to restore safe passage ahead of the May 31 resolution window. These developments continue to shape implied probabilities on Polymarket by linking naval presence to measurable impacts on Brent crude benchmarks, VLCC freight costs, and broader supply-chain risk premia.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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