Trader consensus heavily favors no US hurricane landfall by May 31 because the Atlantic basin’s official season begins June 1, with no tropical disturbances currently present and atmospheric conditions—elevated wind shear and marginal sea-surface temperatures—still suppressing early development. NOAA and National Hurricane Center guidance shows zero organized systems on satellite imagery and model runs through the end of May, aligning with climatological norms where pre-season US landfalls remain exceptionally rare. A realistic challenge could emerge only if an unexpected low-shear window allows rapid intensification of a late-May disturbance in the Gulf or western Caribbean, though current ensemble forecasts assign very low odds to that scenario before the month closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$25,825 交易量
$25,825 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$25,825 交易量
$25,825 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus heavily favors no US hurricane landfall by May 31 because the Atlantic basin’s official season begins June 1, with no tropical disturbances currently present and atmospheric conditions—elevated wind shear and marginal sea-surface temperatures—still suppressing early development. NOAA and National Hurricane Center guidance shows zero organized systems on satellite imagery and model runs through the end of May, aligning with climatological norms where pre-season US landfalls remain exceptionally rare. A realistic challenge could emerge only if an unexpected low-shear window allows rapid intensification of a late-May disturbance in the Gulf or western Caribbean, though current ensemble forecasts assign very low odds to that scenario before the month closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市场开放时间： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$25,825结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus heavily favors no US hurricane landfall by May 31 because the Atlantic basin’s official season begins June 1, with no tropical disturbances currently present and atmospheric conditions—elevated wind shear and marginal sea-surface temperatures—still suppressing early development. NOAA and National Hurricane Center guidance shows zero organized systems on satellite imagery and model runs through the end of May, aligning with climatological norms where pre-season US landfalls remain exceptionally rare. A realistic challenge could emerge only if an unexpected low-shear window allows rapid intensification of a late-May disturbance in the Gulf or western Caribbean, though current ensemble forecasts assign very low odds to that scenario before the month closes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$25,825结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors no US hurricane landfall by May 31 because the Atlantic basin’s official season begins June 1, with no tropical disturbances currently present and atmospheric conditions—elevated wind shear and marginal sea-surface temperatures—still suppressing early development. NOAA and National Hurricane Center guidance shows zero organized systems on satellite imagery and model runs through the end of May, aligning with climatological norms where pre-season US landfalls remain exceptionally rare. A realistic challenge could emerge only if an unexpected low-shear window allows rapid intensification of a late-May disturbance in the Gulf or western Caribbean, though current ensemble forecasts assign very low odds to that scenario before the month closes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题