The near-certain 96.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the climatological reality that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, when sea surface temperatures in the main development region typically climb above the 26.5°C threshold needed for organized tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observations show persistent wind shear and cooler basin waters that continue to suppress early activity, consistent with historical patterns where May hurricanes remain exceptionally rare. Traders are watching for any unexpected National Hurricane Center updates on potential pre-season systems, though model consensus currently indicates no realistic pathway for intensification and landfall before the month ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$26,087 交易量
$26,087 交易量
2026-05-31
是
$26,087 交易量
$26,087 交易量
2026-05-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the climatological reality that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, when sea surface temperatures in the main development region typically climb above the 26.5°C threshold needed for organized tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observations show persistent wind shear and cooler basin waters that continue to suppress early activity, consistent with historical patterns where May hurricanes remain exceptionally rare. Traders are watching for any unexpected National Hurricane Center updates on potential pre-season systems, though model consensus currently indicates no realistic pathway for intensification and landfall before the month ends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市场开放时间： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$26,087结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.The near-certain 96.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the climatological reality that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, when sea surface temperatures in the main development region typically climb above the 26.5°C threshold needed for organized tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observations show persistent wind shear and cooler basin waters that continue to suppress early activity, consistent with historical patterns where May hurricanes remain exceptionally rare. Traders are watching for any unexpected National Hurricane Center updates on potential pre-season systems, though model consensus currently indicates no realistic pathway for intensification and landfall before the month ends.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$26,087结束日期
2026-05-31市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The near-certain 96.5% market-implied probability against a U.S. hurricane landfall by May 31 reflects the climatological reality that the Atlantic hurricane season officially begins June 1, when sea surface temperatures in the main development region typically climb above the 26.5°C threshold needed for organized tropical cyclone formation. As of mid-May, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration observations show persistent wind shear and cooler basin waters that continue to suppress early activity, consistent with historical patterns where May hurricanes remain exceptionally rare. Traders are watching for any unexpected National Hurricane Center updates on potential pre-season systems, though model consensus currently indicates no realistic pathway for intensification and landfall before the month ends.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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