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一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

icon for 一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?

50% 概率
Polymarket
最新

50% 概率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-value results, including the $236.4 million Klimt portrait from the Lauder collection in November 2025 and the $181.2 million Pollock from the Newhouse sale in May 2026, show that eight-figure and low nine-figure trophies can still clear $150 million when exceptional provenance and single-owner collections enter the market. However, the broader 2026 auction environment remains selective, with momentum concentrated in blue-chip modern and Impressionist works rather than a broad surge of comparable lots. Traders price the remaining six months as unlikely to deliver another such result, given the scarcity of confirmed mega-consignments ahead of the November New York sales and the market’s shift toward measured buying amid economic caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the fall evening auctions and any late single-owner announcements that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$209
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".Recent high-value results, including the $236.4 million Klimt portrait from the Lauder collection in November 2025 and the $181.2 million Pollock from the Newhouse sale in May 2026, show that eight-figure and low nine-figure trophies can still clear $150 million when exceptional provenance and single-owner collections enter the market. However, the broader 2026 auction environment remains selective, with momentum concentrated in blue-chip modern and Impressionist works rather than a broad surge of comparable lots. Traders price the remaining six months as unlikely to deliver another such result, given the scarcity of confirmed mega-consignments ahead of the November New York sales and the market’s shift toward measured buying amid economic caution. Key upcoming catalysts include the fall evening auctions and any late single-owner announcements that could shift implied probabilities.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
交易量
$209
结束日期
2027-01-01
市场开放时间
Jun 3, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any single lot is sold at public auction for an all-in price (inclusive of buyer's premium) of at least $150 million at a major auction house between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a major auction house will be one of the following: Sotheby's. Christie's, or Phillips. If no such lot is reported by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the official post-sales results as published on each auction house's official website. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable or no qualifying report is released by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"到12月31日,一件艺术品会以1.5亿美元成交吗?",概率为 40%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 40¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 40%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"是 Polymarket 上新创建的市场,于Jun 3, 2026上线。作为一个新市场,这是你率先设定赔率并建立初始价格信号的机会。你也可以将本页加入书签,以便跟踪交易量和活动。

要在"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"的当前领先者是"到12月31日,一件艺术品会以1.5亿美元成交吗?",概率为 40%,意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 40%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"一件艺术品会在12月31日之前以1.5亿美元的价格售出吗?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。