The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029, 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflects the infrequency of authoritative revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget. That figure derives from the Mercator Research Institute's calculation anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming, divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes show continued emissions near this level without abrupt acceleration or mitigation that would prompt an immediate recalculation. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus shift is scheduled before late 2026, though an unexpected emissions surge or new peer-reviewed budget analysis could still alter the published deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10% 概率
$12,993 交易量
$12,993 交易量
2026-12-31
10% 概率
$12,993 交易量
$12,993 交易量
2026-12-31
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029, 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflects the infrequency of authoritative revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget. That figure derives from the Mercator Research Institute's calculation anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming, divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes show continued emissions near this level without abrupt acceleration or mitigation that would prompt an immediate recalculation. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus shift is scheduled before late 2026, though an unexpected emissions surge or new peer-reviewed budget analysis could still alter the published deadline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
交易量
$12,993结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETEach market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.The 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029, 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflects the infrequency of authoritative revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget. That figure derives from the Mercator Research Institute's calculation anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming, divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes show continued emissions near this level without abrupt acceleration or mitigation that would prompt an immediate recalculation. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus shift is scheduled before late 2026, though an unexpected emissions surge or new peer-reviewed budget analysis could still alter the published deadline.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$12,993结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETThe 90.5% market-implied probability that the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029, 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflects the infrequency of authoritative revisions to its underlying remaining carbon budget. That figure derives from the Mercator Research Institute's calculation anchored to the IPCC AR6 Working Group I 2021 estimate of roughly 400 GtCO₂ from 2020 for a 67% likelihood of limiting warming, divided by a steady annual emissions rate near 42 GtCO₂. Recent Global Carbon Project observations and 2026 stocktakes show continued emissions near this level without abrupt acceleration or mitigation that would prompt an immediate recalculation. No major IPCC reassessment or model consensus shift is scheduled before late 2026, though an unexpected emissions surge or new peer-reviewed budget analysis could still alter the published deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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