Typhoon Saudel, recently upgraded from tropical storm status, is tracking northwestward across the western Pacific east of the Philippines at approximately 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds near 120-130 km/h and ongoing intensification expected over the next 36 hours. Steering influences from subtropical ridges are guiding the system on a consistent west-northwest trajectory, with consensus model guidance pointing to potential landfall near Okinawa around four days out, followed by slowing motion and a possible later southwest turn toward northern Taiwan. Forecasters note low probability of direct Philippine landfall, though the system may enhance the southwest monsoon. Traders monitoring path updates should focus on ridge positioning, shear trends, and any shifts in the extended forecast that could alter the Okinawa or Taiwan scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于热带风暴沙特尔将在哪里登陆？
热带风暴沙特尔将在哪里登陆？
最新
2026-08-31
中国
77%
日本
52%
韩国
8%
$2,310 交易量
中国
$1,590 交易量
77%
日本
$500 交易量
52%
韩国
$220 交易量
8%
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Typhoon Saudel, recently upgraded from tropical storm status, is tracking northwestward across the western Pacific east of the Philippines at approximately 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds near 120-130 km/h and ongoing intensification expected over the next 36 hours. Steering influences from subtropical ridges are guiding the system on a consistent west-northwest trajectory, with consensus model guidance pointing to potential landfall near Okinawa around four days out, followed by slowing motion and a possible later southwest turn toward northern Taiwan. Forecasters note low probability of direct Philippine landfall, though the system may enhance the southwest monsoon. Traders monitoring path updates should focus on ridge positioning, shear trends, and any shifts in the extended forecast that could alter the Okinawa or Taiwan scenarios.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
交易量
$2,310结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETEach market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Typhoon Saudel, recently upgraded from tropical storm status, is tracking northwestward across the western Pacific east of the Philippines at approximately 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds near 120-130 km/h and ongoing intensification expected over the next 36 hours. Steering influences from subtropical ridges are guiding the system on a consistent west-northwest trajectory, with consensus model guidance pointing to potential landfall near Okinawa around four days out, followed by slowing motion and a possible later southwest turn toward northern Taiwan. Forecasters note low probability of direct Philippine landfall, though the system may enhance the southwest monsoon. Traders monitoring path updates should focus on ridge positioning, shear trends, and any shifts in the extended forecast that could alter the Okinawa or Taiwan scenarios.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
交易量
$2,310结束日期
2026-09-01市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETTyphoon Saudel, recently upgraded from tropical storm status, is tracking northwestward across the western Pacific east of the Philippines at approximately 25 km/h with maximum sustained winds near 120-130 km/h and ongoing intensification expected over the next 36 hours. Steering influences from subtropical ridges are guiding the system on a consistent west-northwest trajectory, with consensus model guidance pointing to potential landfall near Okinawa around four days out, followed by slowing motion and a possible later southwest turn toward northern Taiwan. Forecasters note low probability of direct Philippine landfall, though the system may enhance the southwest monsoon. Traders monitoring path updates should focus on ridge positioning, shear trends, and any shifts in the extended forecast that could alter the Okinawa or Taiwan scenarios.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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