Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于华沙8月22日的最高温度？
华沙8月22日的最高温度？
21°C 36%
22°C 19%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
1%
18°C
2%
19°C
7%
20°C
16%
21°C
36%
22°C
19%
23°C
12%
24°C
6%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
1%
21°C 36%
22°C 19%
20°C 16%
23°C 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
16°C or below
$0 交易量
<1%
17°C
$0 交易量
1%
18°C
$50 交易量
2%
19°C
$10 交易量
7%
20°C
$72 交易量
16%
21°C
$11 交易量
36%
22°C
$52 交易量
19%
23°C
$0 交易量
12%
24°C
$20 交易量
6%
25°C
$100 交易量
1%
26°C or higher
$115 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$419结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$419结束日期
2026-08-22市场开放时间
Aug 20, 2026, 12:57 AM ETRecent ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and national meteorological services indicate a likely maximum of 21–22°C in Warsaw on August 22, driven by increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and a shift to cooler northwesterly flow. These conditions suppress daytime heating compared with recent warmer spells, aligning with the market-implied probabilities that place 21°C at 35.5% and adjacent values close behind. Model consensus shows modest uncertainty tied to exact rainfall timing and boundary-layer moisture, with limited potential for brief clearing that could push readings to 23°C or higher. Updated runs ahead of the event will refine the distribution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题