Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月20日深圳气温最高？
8月20日深圳气温最高？
32°C 38%
33°C 23%
31°C 19%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-20
27°C or below
1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
2%
30°C
10%
31°C
16%
32°C
38%
33°C
23%
34°C
14%
35°C
6%
36°C
2%
37°C or higher
1%
32°C 38%
33°C 23%
31°C 19%
34°C 14%
最新
最新
2026-08-20
27°C or below
$286 交易量
1%
28°C
$24 交易量
<1%
29°C
$169 交易量
2%
30°C
$3 交易量
10%
31°C
$15 交易量
16%
32°C
$34 交易量
38%
33°C
$19 交易量
23%
34°C
$71 交易量
14%
35°C
$75 交易量
6%
36°C
$30 交易量
2%
37°C or higher
$22 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$748结束日期
2026-08-20市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$748结束日期
2026-08-20市场开放时间
Aug 18, 2026, 12:57 AM ETTrader consensus clusters tightly around 31–34°C for Shenzhen’s August 20 maximum because short-range models show modest spread amid typical late-summer variability. Subtropical monsoon conditions, high humidity near 80 %, and the urban heat-island effect set a climatological baseline near 32 °C, while recent easing of a mid-month heat spell and possible South China Sea moisture influx favor afternoon convection that caps daytime peaks. Ensemble guidance from global models diverges mainly on timing and coverage of thunderstorms or residual cloud cover, which can shave 1–2 °C from the daily high. With only two days until resolution, updated CMA and ECMWF runs plus local observations will drive the next shifts in implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题