Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029 deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget calculation. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate and Mercator Research Institute methodology, the clock divides a fixed budget by ongoing annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates driven by Global Carbon Project data rather than routine fluctuations. Recent 2025–2026 emissions reports and UNEP assessments confirm no abrupt shifts in trends or mitigation sufficient for a major recalculation. While new model runs or an IPCC stocktake could revise budgets, none are slated before late 2026, and historical updates have occurred on multi-year cycles. Modest emission variations or refined non-CO₂ forcing estimates represent the main variables that could still prompt a shift exceeding 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于10% 概率
$13,261 交易量
$13,261 交易量
2026-12-31
10% 概率
$13,261 交易量
$13,261 交易量
2026-12-31
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029 deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget calculation. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate and Mercator Research Institute methodology, the clock divides a fixed budget by ongoing annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates driven by Global Carbon Project data rather than routine fluctuations. Recent 2025–2026 emissions reports and UNEP assessments confirm no abrupt shifts in trends or mitigation sufficient for a major recalculation. While new model runs or an IPCC stocktake could revise budgets, none are slated before late 2026, and historical updates have occurred on multi-year cycles. Modest emission variations or refined non-CO₂ forcing estimates represent the main variables that could still prompt a shift exceeding 30 days.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
交易量
$13,261结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETEach market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.Trader consensus on the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029 deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget calculation. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate and Mercator Research Institute methodology, the clock divides a fixed budget by ongoing annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates driven by Global Carbon Project data rather than routine fluctuations. Recent 2025–2026 emissions reports and UNEP assessments confirm no abrupt shifts in trends or mitigation sufficient for a major recalculation. While new model runs or an IPCC stocktake could revise budgets, none are slated before late 2026, and historical updates have occurred on multi-year cycles. Modest emission variations or refined non-CO₂ forcing estimates represent the main variables that could still prompt a shift exceeding 30 days.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$13,261结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETTrader consensus on the Climate Clock's July 22, 2029 deadline remaining unchanged through December 31, 2026, at 90.5% implied probability, stems primarily from the stability of its underlying remaining carbon budget calculation. Anchored to the IPCC AR6 estimate and Mercator Research Institute methodology, the clock divides a fixed budget by ongoing annual emissions near 42 GtCO₂, with updates driven by Global Carbon Project data rather than routine fluctuations. Recent 2025–2026 emissions reports and UNEP assessments confirm no abrupt shifts in trends or mitigation sufficient for a major recalculation. While new model runs or an IPCC stocktake could revise budgets, none are slated before late 2026, and historical updates have occurred on multi-year cycles. Modest emission variations or refined non-CO₂ forcing estimates represent the main variables that could still prompt a shift exceeding 30 days.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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