xAI's Grok 4, released in February 2026, currently sits below the 25% threshold on FrontierMath, a benchmark of unpublished research-level math problems that tests advanced reasoning far beyond standard evaluations like AIME or GPQA. OpenAI's o3 crossed 25% in late 2025, while Google DeepMind models have reached up to 48% on harder tiers through multi-agent approaches, highlighting xAI's competitive gap in frontier math despite strong showings on GPQA Diamond. Traders are watching for any near-term Grok updates, fine-tuning announcements, or test-time compute improvements before the June 30 deadline, though xAI has not confirmed new model drops in the next six weeks and historical release patterns suggest limited movement without a major capability leap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$20,870 交易量
2026-02-28
25%+
57%
30%+
49%
40%以上
40%
50%以上
18%
$20,870 交易量
25%+
$5,197 交易量
57%
30%+
$12,605 交易量
49%
40%以上
$2,898 交易量
40%
50%以上
$170 交易量
18%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok 4, released in February 2026, currently sits below the 25% threshold on FrontierMath, a benchmark of unpublished research-level math problems that tests advanced reasoning far beyond standard evaluations like AIME or GPQA. OpenAI's o3 crossed 25% in late 2025, while Google DeepMind models have reached up to 48% on harder tiers through multi-agent approaches, highlighting xAI's competitive gap in frontier math despite strong showings on GPQA Diamond. Traders are watching for any near-term Grok updates, fine-tuning announcements, or test-time compute improvements before the June 30 deadline, though xAI has not confirmed new model drops in the next six weeks and historical release patterns suggest limited movement without a major capability leap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ET
交易量
$20,870结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.xAI's Grok 4, released in February 2026, currently sits below the 25% threshold on FrontierMath, a benchmark of unpublished research-level math problems that tests advanced reasoning far beyond standard evaluations like AIME or GPQA. OpenAI's o3 crossed 25% in late 2025, while Google DeepMind models have reached up to 48% on harder tiers through multi-agent approaches, highlighting xAI's competitive gap in frontier math despite strong showings on GPQA Diamond. Traders are watching for any near-term Grok updates, fine-tuning announcements, or test-time compute improvements before the June 30 deadline, though xAI has not confirmed new model drops in the next six weeks and historical release patterns suggest limited movement without a major capability leap.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any xAI Grok model achieves the listed score or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$20,870结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Jan 30, 2026, 12:01 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI's Grok 4, released in February 2026, currently sits below the 25% threshold on FrontierMath, a benchmark of unpublished research-level math problems that tests advanced reasoning far beyond standard evaluations like AIME or GPQA. OpenAI's o3 crossed 25% in late 2025, while Google DeepMind models have reached up to 48% on harder tiers through multi-agent approaches, highlighting xAI's competitive gap in frontier math despite strong showings on GPQA Diamond. Traders are watching for any near-term Grok updates, fine-tuning announcements, or test-time compute improvements before the June 30 deadline, though xAI has not confirmed new model drops in the next six weeks and historical release patterns suggest limited movement without a major capability leap.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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