Andy Biggs holds a commanding position in Arizona’s Republican gubernatorial primary, driven by his consistent double-digit polling leads over David Schweikert and the February withdrawal of Karrin Taylor Robson that consolidated Trump-aligned support behind the congressman. Biggs has benefited from strong fundraising, record nomination signatures filed in March, and Trump’s endorsement, positioning him near or above 50 percent in recent surveys with early voting scheduled before the July 21 primary. Traders assign him a 94.5 percent implied probability because Schweikert’s challenges—centered on general-election viability against incumbent Katie Hobbs—have not narrowed the gap in head-to-head polling. A late scandal, unexpected consolidation of moderate and undecided voters behind Schweikert, or major shifts in turnout could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.