Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Other 8.2%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
41%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
23%
Renan Santos Victory
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
8%
Lula da Silva <5% 31%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5% 23%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 18%
Other 8.2%
$231,656 Vol.
$231,656 Vol.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$4,601 Vol.
4%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$2,627 Vol.
8%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$6,808 Vol.
18%
Lula da Silva <5%
$2,923 Vol.
41%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$1,984 Vol.
2%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$2,309 Vol.
6%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$4,026 Vol.
23%
Renan Santos Victory
$200,633 Vol.
5%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$1,712 Vol.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$1,774 Vol.
1%
Other
$2,258 Vol.
8%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
ভলিউম
$231,656শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
ভলিউম
$231,656শেষ তারিখ
Oct 4, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polls show incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a narrow first-round lead over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of the October 4 vote, with Lula at around 39 percent and Bolsonaro at 33 percent in the latest Quaest survey. Flávio has consolidated much of the conservative vote following his father Jair Bolsonaro’s endorsement, while Lula faces pressure from economic concerns and approval ratings near 44-47 percent. This fragmented field, with multiple right-of-center governors polling in single digits, has driven trader consensus toward the likelihood of a very close first-round result under 5 percent for either frontrunner. Scheduled events such as further polling releases and potential endorsements from figures like Ronaldo Caiado or Romeu Zema could still shift positioning before election day.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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