Incumbent Juanma Moreno of Spain’s People’s Party holds a commanding position ahead of the May 17 Andalusian regional election, supported by multiple late polls projecting his party at 42–45 percent and 53–58 seats in the 109-seat parliament, enough for an outright majority. This stems from sustained voter approval of his regional governance record and a fragmented opposition, with the PSOE under María Jesús Montero trailing at 21–25 percent and smaller parties including Vox and Por Andalucía splitting the remaining vote. Recent campaign events have reinforced Moreno’s lead without major shifts. An upset would require an unusually large last-minute swing in turnout or provincial results, particularly in key areas like Seville or Málaga, though available polling data shows little precedent for such movement at this stage.